turboplanner

5 minutes ago, aro said:

No idea where you saw that, but based on the raw numbers the situation can only get worse.

 

Hospitalizations lag by a week at least, so the hospitalization numbers reflect the situation when daily numbers were no more than 6-800. Now they are predicting that NSW will keep getting worse until October, which means another 3 doublings at least, to about 10,000 per day. If they are very efficient at getting vaccines out MAYBE they can hold that to 5000/day but I don't see it happening. So they are likely to see the hospital load grow several times over.

 

Nick Coatsworth is happily pointing to a stockpile of 2,000 ventilators, while everyone else is pointing out that there are only enough trained staff to run about 1/3 of them.

 

Someone else was suggesting enlisting vets, because they are experienced at adapting to managing many different types of animals, and should have no additional difficulty with humans. Not sure whether they were serious... I think in other countries they did enlist vets to help administer vaccines.

Sorry, I condensed it down too much. The gist of it was the medical staff were coping with the current situation (that takes care of the lag) and it's looking like it will stay within manageable limits and then fall.

....boots were stout and his walk was straight and ........................

Some good news this morning. Today's forecast for NSW Hospitals is that although they are close to the upper limit the numbers indicate the situation is improving rather than getting worse.

Same for Vic where the new cases are shrinking.

Just now, turboplanner said:

 

Another incident.

23 minutes ago, jackc said:

I give you an instance, 9 years ago we had a major bushfire, I had dozed all my property firebreaks.  We had a fire start 12 kilometres away.  I suggested the Rural Fire Brigade here, do a back burn from my breaks as my 160 acre property backs onto a rural housing estate. The Regional Rural Fires Director refused and the fire swept through and  threatened the housing estate. THEN while I was dealing with the fire on my OWN property, with my OWN vehicle and fire fighting vehicle.

The Director told me I could not do that……I told him to f….. off. He threatened to have me arrested, I said do it…….guess what, that never happened 🙂 

Fortunately, no houses were lost thanks to helicopter water bombing.

6 months later an investigation was done and the Regional Rural Fires Director was fired.  Turbs, you must be a sad person, you run your life and I will run mine and take FULL responsibility AND be happy 🙂   

 

8 minutes ago, IBob said:

True enough. But you don't think the Gestapo were seen as dealing with the Jewish?

They certainly made Hitler's plan for treatment of human beings a reality.

There is a trait in a small percentage of humans which blocks their logic in an emergency. In out bushfires of recent years there were fatalities in towns where these people stayed behind when all the others in the town were safely evacuated, in one case where the local police officer got them all to drive nose to tail and he got them through thick smoke and burning trees on the road.

That's where in Australia our States of Emergency trigger the appointment of a Commander to take the wavering politics out of the equation, but we still have that rump which wants to walk off the cliff, albeit much smaller numbers, and that's saved many families from losing members in this pandemic.

3 minutes ago, IBob said:

I have no idea when the tide changed, but certainly prior to WW2 a significant number of privileged people in Allied countries were pro-fascist and also anti-semitic. This included the likes of aviator Charles Lindbergh, Dame Lucy Houston (who wrote a check for 100,000pounds to support the Schneider Trophy effort when the British government would not, as a deliberate snub to the Labour government of the time), and Edward VIII who abdicated.

 

I don't know whether or how much this may have been the case in Australia and NZ.

That's getting away from the Gestapo though, they were a breed on their own.

.....at the birth he was sterilised with vodka (because in Russia you lived inside your half track, and ate raw fish which were just salted and stacked next to the ammunition, and you couldn't throw the scraps out lest it left a trail for the Germans who would eat the scraps and then hunt you down.). Somehow the Vodka and a diet of raw fish set off a mutation and Half-Track down the track was tracking for ...........................................

7 hours ago, jackc said:

Life itself has elements of risk, nothing is guaranteed.  Me being a realist accept the risks but try to minimise them as much as possible. However being adventurous probably increases those risks, its a sort of balancing act.

But I consider myself lucky, a good friend passed recently and I for some reason thought I better delete him from my phone contacts.  To my horror, after going through my phone realised 10 of my contacts had passed over recent years 😞

That made me realise I am still fortunate to be on this earth.  Then I thought of the unfinished business I have in this life.

 I want to fit a BRS to my aircraft, people have said don’t need them, I said I don’t every want to need the use of one, but it’s there IF I need it. In my opinion all aircraft should have them…….but that’s MY opinion only.  A person whom I had a tense discussion over fitting one to a second hand aircraft 2 years ago is now dead,  I won’t go into details but his aircraft crashed and it was fatal.  Being alive is risky……..

 

That's not a valid argument for not being vaccinated; it's denial.

The NSW spread, which could turn into a disaster was achieved by denial, and ignorance of the way the Delta strain spread.

There's no way to see it travelling to your State let alone your district.

What about your wife; what chance is she being given?

1 minute ago, aro said:

One motivation might be to start bringing in cheaper overseas workers again.

That needs some microscopic examination from the time those people leave their homeland, the way they travel, the way they enter, the way they live, where they live, when they transition from tenporary visas and become "Australians" how much they are pulling off the Australian pensions in the homeland, and then the emeployer structure, what that does to the business of competitors, to industries, to productivity (it's a bit rich when a truck driver can't find South Australia, and probably another fifty things I've missed.

18 minutes ago, KRviator said:

Quoting what?  Zero-Covid? Look at McGowan and his "I will not accept any cases or deaths on my watch!". Source. Then there's Victorian CHO Brett Sutton just this morning, "Victoria's hope for achieving COVID-zero again has been thrown into doubt with another 73 local cases of coronavirus recorded today. Of the new cases, 52 have so far been linked to known outbreaks, with 21 mystery cases under investigation. Chief Health Officer Professor Brett Sutton today said he was hopeful case numbers would continue to stabilise due to the lockdown, noting the state was still following the aggressive suppression strategy for managing the virus." Source. 

 

Oh, then there's Queensland and their Covid Zero "Queensland is likely to reopen to the rest of Australia and stop trying to eradicate COVID-19 when its vaccination rates hit 80 per cent." Source.

 

So...Uhhh...what's that about not working on Covid-Zero? 

I did explain the pattern which is not your definitive "Zero forever."   The pattern has been fast and short lock downs until the cases are known, or small enough that they will be known, then open up while the cases reach their conclusion, which drops off all the negative cases within a fortnight, during which the ones who became sick are sent to hospitals and the ones who didn't go to quarantine, and quite often there are zero cases for a few weeks, but no one, except a few, are under any doubt that numbers can flare and quickly overrun the hospitals.

 The plan being formulated by the National Cabinet allows this policy to cease when the numbers get to a point where what's left can't overrun the hospitals. At that point there will be a fixed number of people unvaccinated who are the at-risk group.  At that point your wish will probably come true unless new strains mutate.

14 minutes ago, walrus said:

Taxiing isn’t flying.

SPOILER ALERT - VICTORIA ONLY

When you are limited to one of the family going for urgent shopping and not allowed out of your five km radius, and any other restrictions that's cold comfort if the cops do a spot check. 

1 hour ago, Old Koreelah said:

So many people claim they are “getting away from it all” but end up taking it all with them.

Some friends of ours once came on a weekend camping trip with us and overloaded their car and trailer, so dad brought the Ute along too. 

 

I’m spending Lockdown building a camper body that fits over my trailer. It has a queen-sized bed, lots of convenient storage bays, lots of lights and power points, a kitchenette, etc. Total trailer weight about 650kg.

I’ve discovered the downside of having made it so streamlined: it’s plurry hard to reverse into the shipping container because the curved sides give little reference to where its pointing!

 

I know so many locals who are planning the big around-Oz caravan trip as soon as they are allowed to travel. The roads and caravan parks won’t be able to cope.

Have a look on the net. Maybe you could put a bluetooth camera inside the shipping container

1 hour ago, KRviator said:

So what if we have? The whole "Zero Covid" mentality is a crock of shit. It's unsustainable, uneconomical and unethical. The goal was to Flatten the curve. We did that. We tolerated lockdowns to do that. No one agreed to Zero-Covid, and the whole "Let's blame NSW for our states cases" is disingenious and only highlights their own unrealistic expectations compared to Covid reality. Look at any other highly vaccinated jurisdiction in the world. Any other jurisdiction...And look at their case numbers then convert them to a percentage of our population and see what you get - I'll give you a hint, it ain't Zero! Or even close to it...

 

I went flying last week and make no apologies for it. I have an exemption from Qld to fly up there to check out a plane for sale, and that's fine so long as I don't leave the airport, then fly direct back to NSW.

One  minute your're demanding references then this. Australia is not working on Zero-Covid, but the social distancing policy combined with contact tracing has allowed us to achieve it for several months at a time. More importantly the success of our smaller States has avoided a massive overrun of their smaller hospital capacity. The result of the policy which has deveoped over time is that Australia sits about 44th in the world in terms of performance. There's no point in quoting policies we used last year because we've moved on.

1 hour ago, KRviator said:

@turboplanner at least put a reference on that so you can A) prove it's true and not just someone's opinion, and B) Know what state you're referring to, because in NSW you can fly for training in NSW as it is deemed "Education that cannot be done from home". Service NSW has confirmed that.

Words fail me; NSW is right on the tipping edge of an Italy situation where hospitals are at their limit and could fail.

1 hour ago, Garfly said:

In NSW too?

Sorry, Walrus comes from Victoria despite what his avatar says.

Can I fly a plane for recreation or take a flying lesson?  

Recreational flying and flying lessons are not permitted.

............bowell movement. No potions or treatments were needed in that department. 

However it wasn't all that pleasant for anyone else and the room emptied in an instant. The Club President found a fire hose and washed him down, and .............

39 minutes ago, facthunter said:

An epidemic amongst the un vaccinated will overwhelm the hospital system also and ordinary people won't be able to use it for the original purposes it was designed for. We are seeing that now. Nev

The Premier outlined that yesterday. In NSW with over a thousand cases per day their system is like New Year's Eve every day, just about at full capacity now, so very concerning.

All the States are working on a target to reach - maybe 80% vaccinated when the entire pool of unvaccinated is within the State's capacity, then there's no problem with opening up because there's enough hospital capacity for all the unvaccinated at the same time, and if they all get sick they can all be treated.

......arrested for disturbing the peace.

This would be an unusual arrest for what's shown in the picture, but the animal growls, yelps and snarls which had been going on for an hour before the police arrived, frightening the many young children in this otherwise peacefull hamlet.

The picture clearly shows Cappy's face and his rakinsh demeanor.

The woman has been told to cover her face because she had a head on her like a robber's dog.

The overturned chait was most likely staged by the police to reinforce the bestial complaints.

Cappy walked out through the front door, escorted by the Peelers and a hundred flashlight bulbs went off at once.

A woman in the crowd threw a rotten egg at him and ........

17 minutes ago, jackc said:

In 5 years time we will only really know the volatility of spreading it, we will have statistics of vaccination success, long term side effects,  susceptibility of vaccinated people spreading it etc.

Only time will tell.

11 minutes ago, jackc said:

People must accept responsibility by not travelling, unless there is an urgent need.

Nurses?   I feel sorry for any health professional.   The Govt has covid sufferers at mainstream hospitals, infecting those hospitals?

The Army could establish field hospitals in unused buildings for covid sufferers ONLY, the medical staff  work within that hospital and live in quarantine with all services they need to be provided.

Rotate the medical staff after appropriate monitoring with other staff sources, to give them a break.  Pay them accordingly.

We're really not looking for medical advice. The proposal is to open up all over Australia when the vaccination level is at a certain percent  where the number of unvaccinated people are not enough to overflow the hospitals. As people die those numbers wil become less and less.

3 minutes ago, jackc said:

Caused by deadbeats escaping the concrete Melbourne wasteland…….

You can insult other people all you like but the spread carriers are not limited to deadbeats.

I wouldn't call nurses coming home from the coast at the weekend.

The Cairns outbreak was caused by an airline hostess on the Longreach to coat shift.

1 minute ago, jackc said:

Still becoming infected and spreading it everywhere…..the vaccine stops the person having vaccine, from getting  so sick…….that’s it. Does not stop the spread, only masks, sanitisers, social distancing etc will do that.

That's the scenario I was describing. The whole vaccinated population could catch it with no more effect than a bout of flu, but they all become spreaders. The victims of that will be the unvaccinated.

5 minutes ago, jackc said:

They are all farmers who live in the bush, like me.  Ever been to Thangool Qld?

airport……it’s covered in cobwebs!  That is where we meet.

Famous last words.

A Couple of weeks ago the Delta strain hit Mildura, Bendigo, Shepparton and next day was in Benalla and Mansfield.

Farmers can travel hundreds of kilometres in a day to buy a ram.