Jerry_Atrick

And only when she is having a cuppa tea.. with two sugars...

I echo @octave's response above, but as this was addressed to me, I thought I would add one more thing... The assertion is that everything is way over the top and the "mathematically illiterate" are gullible and there is something that experts - people with decades of experience in medicine consulting with people with decades of experience with outbreaks, don't know that is known by others. Yet, no credible evidence has been proffered. Without validating the data sources, I googled Japan covid cases (japan covid cases - Google Search) and Australia Covid Cases (australian covid cases - Google Search) One of the assertions is that it only really badly affects areas with high population densities. Well, take a look at the Japanese numbers.. By any valid comparison, a population density of at least 10 times Australia*, yet their peak number of cases in their second wave is not even twice the number of that in Australia - and given most have occurred in Northern outer parts of Melbourne, I would guess that the relative population densities are quite a bit less than a factor of 10 (as an aside, ACT has a pretty hefty population density of over 1,000/sq mile). They don't precisely correlate in a linear way and I am not going to see if there is any other correlation. The thing is, the vast majority of the numbers in Australia (I have not checked Japan) originate from specific areas; probably from specific events** (BLM, work places and horny security guards come to mind); I guess it's too cold to flock to the beaches). I am all for reasonable and proportional restrictions to the risk; my concern is that the phrase "reasonable and proportional" especially combined with, "for the mathematically illiterate" is a vehicle to unilaterally water down the restrictions without true regard for the risk. At present, we know the fatality rate, but what we don't have ready figures for are the rates of chronic impairment distributed over different levels of severity so we can measure life changing chronic impairment. Also, key is the transmission rate ® and reducing it (I think that is as plain as the nose on my masked face). We know it's behaviour is exponential (as with many contafgeous diseaeses). We know it has a long incubation period so working out you have it before taking precautions once you notice you have symptoms to avoid transmission is futile. Unlike HIV, which is realtively hard to spread without being in close contact and transmission of body fluids - and even then, unless there is direct transmission into the bloodstream, even a set of inhibitor (anti-viral) drugs would be a very expensive exercise as a signfiicant proportion of the population would contract it.. While I accept if I am promiscuous and have unprotected sex with every man, woman and chimp that consents I may end up having to take and anti-viral for the rest of my life, I can elect to wear a condom and drastically reduce the chances. Now, wearing a condom is sort of like wearing a mask at the end of the day.. it does reduce enjoymnent, but it serves to reduce transmission. Yet no-one sees wearing a condom as a violation of their human rights... Of course they have a choice, but I am sure, if it were enforceable, law makers would have loved to, in the days prior to the anti-virals, have a law preventing unprotected sex except when intending to procreate.. but enforcing it is not practical - and HIV doesn't have the transmission rate of COVID. On the other hand, enforceing restrictions is more pragmatic and it does have a wild transmission rate. My point.. the lockdown is to get ahead of an exponential increasining of transmissions - look at the curves of the two graphs - even mathematically illiterate can see the patterns. IMHO, they show how it can quickly get out of control; Once under control, social distancing, masks, etc, is required to keep it there. It sort of makes sense. Yes, I take the point it provides other pain and suffering.. the question is of scale.. I am lucky, I live in a big (although renovators delight) house in a village on a decent plot of land outside of London. I feel very sorry for those families in a small flat in a tower block (as I do for those in housing commissions in Melbourne). We should be providing them support and relief - that is sympathetic to their cultures e.g. special dietary requierements, maybe some timetable of exercise out of the house, financial support, medicines, pastoral care, etc. I absolutely agree... But, the maths speak for themselves so far, to this illiterate person. * You could also find areas in Japan on a par of population density or even less than areas in Australia. But like for like, relative to the country (e.g. captial cities, etc), it does appear to be that. Of course, Tokyo is only 6 times more populated that ACT, so I compared it to Sydney which was actually way more than 10 times... I compared Sydney to Okinawa, which gave more than twice the population density, however, that is like comparing Sydney to Geelong, maybe. It appears going hard has results regardless of population density (but, if you live in an area of 3 people per square mile, then going hard is not coming within 100' of your neighbour). ** I don't know what caused the outbreaks in Melb - just potential causes... so happy to be corrected.. .Well, happy to be corrected with any of the above. [edit] Looking at US Stats (google COVID-19 Cases USA), where it can be argued they have let it to a certain extent rip, their fatality rate is 3.5% - almost 3.5 times ours..They have a similar health system (although poublic health is not as good as ours), but that doesn't account for the massiv difference in fatality rates. Note, the global reported fatality rate is 3.9% and that includes many countries without developed public health facilities. That should provide some food for thought. Also, lool at their curve - more or less plateaued during their controversial period of lockdowns and restrictions; but as they have eased, well... the data is there...

Hi @SplitS, Can you please educate us mathematically illiterate, using credible sources, where the official maths is wrong? After all, stating "for the mathematically illiterate" is all well and good, but without real cedible evidence, it is a hollow claim. I know and understand that the death rate is c 1% of reported cases (and it appears that increasing the testing correlates to an increased identification in number of infections, but given the concern of the number of increased deaths attributed to pnuemonia, there is a concern there is also an underreporting of deaths as well). I also know that the death rate is lower amongst the younger population, but it seems to be catching out a number of people with hitherto unknown conditions susceptible to becoming a fatality under COVID-19 who were living normal, active lives. We also know the spread is exponential and has the propensity to overwhelm the health services because of the extra-long incubation period before symptoms are exhibited and that a relatively high population will require hosptialisation to the point where hospitals will have to turn people away. Intuitiviely, in such a scenario where people are being turned away from necessary hosptial treatment, (and as witnessed in NYC), the death rate will increase as a result. I haven't done the research and to be honest, I can't be bothered because I trust our health officials.. so far they have not been materially wrong unless everything we are being told and the stats that are being kept is complete BS. In this situation, it is hard to be statisctically precise to the individual case, but all the maths and stats I have seen do not paint a rosy picture to just let it rip - even protecting the known people with pre-existing conditions and the elderly.... The medical profession may be erring on the side of caution, but in this case, so far, the evidence has borne out support of this approach rather than throwing caution to the wind. But let's go the other way... Let's isolate a decent sized part of the population representative of the greater population at large, including proprotional sized health facilities, age ranges, known pre-conditions and we can assume unknown pre-conditions; and, of course, thrown in a proprtional number of people estimated to have the virus today ... let the virus rip and see what happens. Will you volunteer to be in that test? I certainly wouldn't - nor would I allow any of my family - and I would strongly dissuade anyone else.

That bloke in the video is having a rant out of jealousy because he is not a Melbournian.

OK - assume it's their brains travelling at the speed of light :-)

Even they're not too hard to lift off the internet.. Having said that, you will rarely seen any from me... mainly because I have been in hiatus lately, but also, for some reason, I am not comfortable taking photos while flying... The ones I have posted have usually been taken by my son.

..... ensure that ....

the CEO of an organisation held in such high regard by its community, it is unaccountable... However, they often.......

Gutsy man letting us all know you have a 5¼" floppy

Tomorrow in ol' Blighty, wearing face masks in shops becomes compulsory (they announced it two weeks ago; maybe COVID-SARS was predicted to be dormant until tomorrow?) However, for some reason, we can go to pubs and restaurants/cafes without wearing masks? Is alcohol an inhibitor they are not telling us about? Today, I get my first haircut since some time in January... Unfortunately, what hair I have doesn't grow long, it sprouts out the sides, so I look lik a half-bald, wrinkly and rotten broccoli floret... Will be wearing a mask (have to hold it to my face). Funniest thing I have seen, and it is quite common, are people wearing masks with their noses poking out of the top of it into the air... Sort of defeats the purpose...

I had a large response to the police thing... but better judgement kicked in. In summary, my experience of the Victorian Police (last in about 1999 - and only traffic related) was that they are defintiely adverarial (us v them) to start with, but once you establish yourself as respectful to them and don't try and BS them, they show discretion. Hey, I even managed to avoid a fine from the notorious Traffic Operations Group back in the early 90s for doing 80 in a 60 zone coming out of a country town between the last house and the 80 sign. I find the police in the UK (again, only for traffic offences) don't exhibit the adversarial trait - based mainly on the fact that when doing over 90 on motorways and being caught red-handed, they haven't even bothered coming after me (and no fine or summons in the post). In fact, once, when I slowed down, the motorcycle policeman waved me on to speed up (and of course, I would not disobey the police). In the case of COVID-19, like an umpire of an AFL game, the rules allow a lot of lattitude when making a decision. Unlike an AFL game, they have to balance personal liberties against the wider community safety, and it is a difficult call to make. Some will err on the side of caution; some will err on the side of personal liberties and some will get it right. Unfortunatley, some will be posterior holes (as there are in all forms of life). Thankfully, the latter are in the minority - but the natire of being adverarial to start off with may be in response to community attitudes. Here is an ABC report on an outback policeman. Interesting watching: Back to topic.. I can't even get back to Melbourne to traverse a border

I know I have lately been a little critical of QANTAS, but I recall when my father took ill and I needed to get to Melbourne in the height of peak season (15 years ago), QANTAS upped their game and got me there on time - at a price not too far off the cheapest you could get. Of course, it was a 747 (or two) that did the work. For cattle class, much better than the A380.. And yes, the CEO wasn't the same as now, but, I think if the chips were down, QANTAS would probably do it again. Despite Boeing's 737 problems, for long haul (and i have done London - Singapore in business), I would take the 747 ansd 777 over any Airbus I have been in.. Of course, that is from a pax perspective, so down to the airline configuration... From the front seat, I defer to the experts. Also, on the A380, never got the pushing into the back seat feeling that one got in the 747 or 777. RIP the Flying Kangaroo 747... Great service over the years.

I did say perception - not reality... As Bruce mentioned, home builder have more time... However, I have noticed many ads that are at pains to stipulate factory build and the price doesn't seem to be cheaper... Mind you, I am surem the LAA drivers who build their own aircraft are normally a discerning bunch... [Edit] It is worrying about the quality of factory built anyway.. The TB20 was laid up in the workshop so long for its paint because of the manufacture issues found by the shop... It really was not one where quality control was front and centre... Maybe it was made after a French lunch on a Friday afternoon?

Sorry - was the way I worded my response (first time i saw the thread and after reading the OP, I read all the responses and was taken off track). The point is, over here, there is a perception of higher probability of lower quality in homebuilds than factory builds. I have no idea if it results in a lower value (though my guess is, it would as lower quality usually equals lover perceived value), but over here, factory build is used as a strong selling point..

I also don't have experience of kit building (maybe one day), but I do know someone who purchases kit builds and despite the LAA (equiv. to the RAAus) inspecting at different points of the build and of course the annual permit to fly inspection, he has seen some death traps. Having said that, I have seen death traps of current airworthy GA aircraft, so neither is a guarantee. In my case, I would have an independent inspection of either unles I was that confident in my own technical assessement as even from a few hundred feet, if the thing falls apart, it is going to be a very bumpy landing.

I agree with that.. Radio phraeology here is crazy and I cringe when flying in Europe to hear British pilots prattle off the requirements under UK Radiotelehpony. But, as the usage of wilco is vague and doesn't save much if it is for simple/short instructions, may as well eliminate any risk of miscommunication. If one wants to get an enroute flight information service here, this is the call (for Farnborough LARS): "Farnborough west, Golf-Alpha Bravo Charlie Delta, Piper Warrior, Blackbushe to Dunkeswell, 4 Miles East of Blackbushe two-tousand, fife hundred on one-zero-one-niner, VFR, expect Popham one-five, request basic service". We don't do flight information or flight following; we have god knows how many different services (I think 7) that the CAA determine fit into either flight information or flight following. Basic service is the lowest and has the least chatter.. On a busy day in the South East of England, you seriously can't get a word in edgeways... So they now have listening squawks; set the transponder to a pre-determined code and they know you are listening to them. Why they can't overall for phraseology is beyind me, because, clearly they don't need it if all you need to do is set a transponder code. BTW, that is all I do, unless I need to contact them, which is, never.

In the UK, it's slightly different (we are eccentric after all). We are required to read back both clearances and instructions - well - some instructions... The example above would not normally be read back - it would be Wilco (will comply) to signal it is received, understood and will be followed. If there was a clear to land (for for and aerodrome flight information office, "land at your discretion" - which is nether a clearance nor an instruction), then you would read back... Because CAP13 is ambiguous as to when to use wilco (it says something like for short, simple instructions, wilco is acceptable), I read back all clearances and instructions... If wilco is only for short, simple instructions, it doesn't save that much time and it confirms to the ATSU (air traffic services unit) that I have understood what they have said.

In the UK, it would be Wilco, VH-ABC

Refer to the POH.. but ususally it is cabin heat/firewall vents off, windows open, fresh air vents open, land ASAP (but safely)...

For a long time, even though I had a Skydemon (something like OzRunways), I still marked up the map, manually entered the PLOG (using a beauty of a whizzwheel I got from LaTrobe Valley Aero Club), marked everything off as I went, did in-flight calcs, etc.. On one occasion though, I was running a tad late, so skipped the manual bit, punched the plan into Skydemon on my phone, checked wx, enroute NOTAMs, etc.. All good to go... jumped in and away we went. Normally, I try and familiarise myself wioth landmarks, but thought follow the magenta line - she'll be right. Had the map, not marked up.. No PLOG (which I hand write enroute checks in mnemonics).. just the phone.. And some old GPS unit of which the database wasn't updated since the day it was fitted. What could possibly go wrong? I made sure the iphone batter was fully charged, took off and as I knew the area well, headed west along a railway line past Farnborough. Sometime after, the landscape wasn't quite familiar. No worries (or wuckers if you are from my generation).. With flight mode on, the yellow plane was faithfully following the magenta line.. Problem was, I stoopidly (spelling error intentional) followed the magenta line with my eyeball. Hardly looked out until we got visual with the Severn river as I knew that area well (we - I had my son! - routed slightly out of our way as the inlaws live near there). While I was doing my best to follow the magental line, the actual track oscillated either side of it in a sort of random pattern. I flew IFR (I follow Roads) from the Severn Bridge to Clearwell, a small village in the Forest of Dean where the in-laws live, after which we turned left a bit to head north of Cardiff. I didn't even know what heading to take, I just followed the magenta line again.After passing Cardiff, we lost GPS.. from the phone - and the isntalled GPS unit. There was no NOTAM warning of GPS jamming, and my first response was (embarresingly) to almost panic. I sort of know where I am - but no idea where I am supposed to go. After about a second, I worked out I was roughly heading in the right direction - and we were flying direct to Haverfordwest.. Finally, I took note of the bearing, picked a landmark in the distance and headed for it. For the FIRST time since I left familiar territory, I recall looking out of the aircraft.. The little yellow plane sprung back to life after a few minutes, but I thought stuff that, I am going back to visual outside the cockpit.. And the plane followed the magenta line with very little deviation. It does suck you in... That flight taught me a lesson.. about why I love flying. Although the latest tech is a godsend, I like the challenge of getting everything right using my own noggin... I would write more, but my mate wolfie is banging on the door! Edit, the red circle in the picture below shows roughly where I lost GPS...

And how soon to get to the bulk of the population...

A friend of mine in London was scpetial about all of the controls put in place to control the outbreak.. he was effectively crying it was all a hoax, etc, etc. Turns out he has just sold his London flat and moved to Yorkshire to get away COVID...

G'day... from the UK...

@turbs - that is a little below the belt, ol' chap... Or at least the way I read it, it is. Whilst my business has all but evapourated, it has provided another window of opportunity I am working on... And, while I have been in general support of the response by governments who have taken early and strong responses to the virus - there does come a time where we have to look at adopting measures to allow society to open up again. However, we needed (and probably still need) a period of time of swift and strong measures to protect, whuile we work out enough about the virus to determine next steps. Are we there, yet? I am not sure. In the UK we are getting flare ups. BoJo has just mandated And, for each society, it will be different based on the culture of that society. For example, someone earlier provided data on the affect on Japan, not having had the harsh measures we have had. Well, this may work for Japan, as they are pretty well monocultural (one advantage to being that), and they tend to be a culture of obedience. I don't know if anyone recalls, but when they suffered the tsunami that knocked out Fukashima, there was news footage of younger Japanese walking in deserted streets (calmly) and stopping at Don't Walk pedestrian lights until they changed to walk - without a car on the road (well, maybe one or two were floating by ;-)). This could have been staged by whoever was broadcasting it (or the syndication network), but having worked with a Japanese Bank for a year (one of my clients), that culture of obedience is very strong (The Japanese never wanted to return to Japan for what was admitted to be the amount of freedom they had with their company here - which wasn't much). Sweden, who normally have an obliging population (and somewhat monoculture compared to many other Western European countries) have had a different outcome. One of the problems we (Aussies, Brits, etc) have to overcome, and one of the first steps to transition is an acceptance by all cultures (and I include Bogans and Ferrals) is that we have to comply with social distancing and other protective measures.. and like having sex with someone while you know you are infected with HIV, not complying is a serious criminal offence (over in England and Wales, having sex with someone while you are knowingly infected with HIV is an attempted murder or manslauughter charge - I think). And it has to be enforced. The minority groups, new from war torn countries or established, have to be educated (not just of the measure, but why) and there are no religious or other exceptions... Once some way to emperically meausre that the message had got out and has been understood/agreed upon, then you go to the next phase. etc etc etc. Exactly what those phases are, I haven't though about.. but the above is just a thought... The other thing is there does not appear to be a plan - from most of the western countries (though, Italy, France and Germany appear to be ahead of the curve). The population is getting restless. There needs to be something that they can hang their hat on - even if it has to change as new information comes to light. Without this, they may think things are rudderless and this allows conspiracy theories and general ignorance to propagate unchecked.