Amelia: yet another theory ... and search (NYT article)

[Garfly]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/08/12/science/amelia-earhart-search-robert-ballard.html?action=click&module=Editors Picks&pgtype=Homepage

 

 

[Student Pilot]

Very inneresting, you would think if they can pick out a separated undercarriage leg they would be able to find the substantially larger fuse using the same technology. Unless mebe the aircraft was in landing configuration and struck the water/reef losing a leg and continuing on a further................

 

To be honest I only half read the article and got distracted by an IQ test in the advertising border. Taking the test I feel it was a setup for click bait as I could only get an IQ of 75, at least it puts me up there with world leaders, Trumpf's IQ is around that ? 

 

Sorry to hyjack the thread Gazzafly

 

 

[turboplanner]

This is not "yet another theory" but one which has been around for about a decade and one of the two most plausible.

 

A few years ago evidence of a camp on Nikumaroro (which is uninhabited) with some artifacts tied to the Earhart flight era was found, and from memory an aluminium panel, and Tighar believed Earhart and Noonan had made a successful crash landing on the reef, with both surviving, and that the aircraft had been washed off the reef.

 

The debates over the navigation and fuel burn potential; mistakes, argued by pilots expert in navigation would fill a 600 page book and make you a top class navigator, and Nikumaroro is in the target zone.

 

The other remaining theory is that something went wrong and they decided to turn back, crashing on New Guinea. Someone took some photos which showed show a Lockheed 10-E engine. This was during WW2, and the person was ordered to bury the aircraft so dozed a hole and pushed it in. Only later did people realise there were no military Lockheed  10-Es in New Guinea at that time. he was able to provide searchers with a reasonable location, since he buried it in the middle of a track, but they're still looking, finance being the problem.

 

 

[Reynard]

https://youtu.be/GHSqd5VA3Rc?si=CsoiPtLDKwWQ9ex-

 

 

Here we go again !

[facthunter]

She had a Nice Plane. Navigation capabilities a bit Lacking. Nev

[Moneybox]

On 13/10/2026 at 12:51 PM, facthunter said:

She had a Nice Plane. Navigation capabilities a bit Lacking. Nev

A wide open ocean, flying at night and with an overcast sky. I doubt any of us could find that island without GPS.

[facthunter]

Many carried a Navigator and did Star shots. Nev

[turboplanner]

16 minutes ago, facthunter said:

Many carried a Navigator and did Star shots. Nev

As did she on that trip.

[Reynard]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/oct/19/amelia-earhart-purdue-expedition-clump-of-trees-nikumaroro-kiribati

[planesmaker]

Amelia went down in the Marshall Islands, where she was picked up by the Japanese and taken eventually to Saipan, where she died possibly of disease. Her navigator possibly executed. It’s all in a book written by Fred Guerner in 1966. Very well researched with lots of testimonies, secrets and coverups. 

[rgmwa]

The Japanese theory is on very shaky ground due to lack of evidence and credibility. It’s much more likely that the most straightforward explanation is correct. She got lost, ran out of fuel and went down in the ocean. No great mystery. 

Edited Friday at 01:04 AM by rgmwa

[FlyBoy1960]

We can't even find that bright yellow aircraft that went missing with 2 POB from Tasmania just over one year ago as it was heading to the mainland.

What chance have we got trying to find something that has been missing for 89 years, 3 months, and 28 days ?

[planesmaker]

1 hour ago, rgmwa said:

The Japanese theory is on very shaky ground due to lack of evidence and credibility. It’s much more likely that the most straightforward explanation is correct. She got lost, ran out of fuel and went down in the ocean. No great mystery. 

Have you read the book? Well researched. 

[rgmwa]

No, I haven't but I'm familiar with the story. This is my understanding of why it's implausible:

 

While it is theoretically possible that Amelia Earhart drifted off course into Japanese-controlled territory, historians and mathematical fuel analysis indicate it is highly improbable that she was found or captured by the Japanese.

The "Japanese Capture Theory" is one of the most persistent alternative explanations for her 1937 disappearance, but it faces overwhelming historical and logistical hurdles.

The Arguments Against Japanese Capture

• The Fuel Problem: Earhart’s last radio transmissions to the US Coast Guard cutter Itasca indicated she was critically low on fuel. Her planned destination was Howland Island. The nearest Japanese-held territory in the Marshall Islands was hundreds of miles away—a distance her Lockheed Electra simply lacked the fuel to reach. [1, 2]
• Geopolitics in 1937: In July 1937, the United States and Japan were not at war. Japan was beginning its invasion of China and had no logical reason to capture, hide, or execute a global celebrity like Earhart, which would risk provoking a massive conflict with the US. Post-war investigations found zero record of her in Japanese military or prison archives. [1, 2]
• Lack of Actual Naval Activity: Though Japan officially offered to assist in the 1937 search, documentation indicates that Japanese ships in the region, such as the survey ship Koshu, did not actually alter their courses to hunt for Earhart, meaning no military vessels were in position to intercept her. [1]

Debunking "The Evidence"

Proponents of this theory frequently point to a few specific claims, all of which have been heavily scrutinized or outright debunked:

1. The Infamous National Archives Photo: In 2017, a History Channel documentary pointed to a newly surfaced photo from the Marshall Islands showing a woman and man on a dock, claiming they were Earhart and her navigator, Fred Noonan, in Japanese custody. However, a Japanese blogger quickly traced the photo back to a Japanese travelogue published in 1935—two full years before Earhart disappeared. [1, 2, 3, 4]
2. Saipan Prison Rumours: Local lore on the island of Saipan has long alleged that an American woman matching Earhart's description was held in a Japanese jail there. Despite archaeological digs at suspected burial sites on nearby Tinian and Saipan, no physical evidence, bones, or aircraft parts have ever been recovered to substantiate these stories. [1, 2]

Where Mainstream Research Stands Today

Most credible historians and aviation experts support the "crash and sink" theory—that she ran out of fuel and ditched in the open ocean near Howland Island. [1, 2]

Another leading hypothesis points to Nikumaroro Island (formerly Gardner Island), where researchers believe she may have made a castaway landing. In fact, an October 2026 expedition funded by Purdue University targeted a metallic anomaly in the island's lagoon, though the search concluded the anomaly was a cluster of trees rather than plane wreckage. [1, 2, 3]

 

So is the Japanese theory impossible? No. But is it likely when weighed against the other simpler explanations. Also no.

 

[rgmwa]

Another couple of points: The Marshall Islands are over 800 nm from Howland Island and she was already very low on fuel, so she had no hope of flying that far. They had already flown over 2,200nm from Lae at this point. Also they last reported they were running on a line of position 157/337, which would have taken them well clear of the Marshall Islands if they were anywhere near Howland. 

 

[planesmaker]

Ok I still think you ought to read the book!

[rgmwa]

Fair enough. I'm always open to being persuaded, but I think the Occam's Razor explanation is the right one in this case. There's no need for complexity to explain what happened here if you assume that Fred Noonan got them roughly to the right area and read the radio logs. They were in one-way radio contact with the Itasca and reported being low on fuel an hour before transmissions stopped. 

 

 

Radio Log of the Last Communications of Amelia Earhart

WWW.ARCHIVES.GOV

---

This is a radio log from the USCGC Itasca, a U.S. Coast Guard cutter tasked with supporting Amelia Earhart’s 1937 flight around the world...

 

Edited Friday at 10:55 AM by rgmwa

[planesmaker]

All of it is covered in the book. Check the library they may have a copy. Called “the search for Amelia Earhart”

[rgmwa]

Well, according to AI there's evidence that Goerner eventually changed his mind on the Saipan hypothesis:

 

While Goerner publicly defended his Saipan theory for decades, evidence that he radically changed his mind emerged at the very end of his life: [1]

• The Deathbed Tape Recording: On the day he died in 1994, Goerner made a tape recording revealing that he had abandoned his long-held beliefs. [1, 2]
• No Secret Military Mission: In the recording, Goerner stated he no longer believed Earhart and Noonan were on a covert military mission, noting that "the military didn't have the dollars" at the time. Instead, he suggested they were merely collecting "white intelligence" (publicly observable information). [1]
• Shift in Location: Most significantly, Goerner abandoned the idea that they ended up in the Marshall Islands or Saipan. He stated his final belief was that they actually "landed on one of five small reefs between Howland Island and the northern Phoenix Islands and that it is possible the plane is still there." [1]

The bottom line is nobody knows for sure where they eventually finished up, but they never made it to Howland Island. Anyway, it's been interesting to dig into it a bit more. Maybe they'll find something one day but the odds are against it after all this time.

[planesmaker]

Sounds like you have quite an interest in it. 
anyway it was a good read😀

[onetrack]

The National Geographic has the best precis on the disappearance of Amelia Earhart. I would have to opine that Elgen Long, the very experienced pilot and investigator, has found almost all of the underlying trip errors, and Long has plotted the point where the Electra went in.

The plethora of misleading and simply plain erroneous stories, theories and rumours about Earharts disappearance are just that, and have simply muddied the waters around the truth.

The story about capture by the Japanese is simply made up rubbish, from the unverified, and unconfirmed sighting of one young girl, leading to wild speculation, none of it based on facts.

 

The problem with an aircraft sinking in deep water, it can end up a long way away from even accurate "last position" plots.

This was the simple reason why it took so long to find the Titanic. The co-ordinates sent out when it was sinking were correct, but the final resting place of the wreck was miles away, due to continued travel whilst sinking.

You can read the NG article by disabling Javascript on your computer. 

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/article/remembering-two-icons-amelia-earhart-search

[rgmwa]

Good to see you back OT.

[rgmwa]

This rectangle is roughly where Long thought it went down - 62nm north and south of Howland, 41nm west and 29nm east. That's a lot of water to search, and as the island is the top of an ancient volcano the water very close to land is around 3,800m-5,000m deep. It's not surprising that nobody has found it.