Douglas with respect I was one of the pilots that left about 7.30am with a Jodel in front and another Savannah behind me all heading for YCAB. I got the weather 3 times in the preceding 12 hours and the forecast was well within VMC to track direct but a lingering complex trough was slow to move through. If you saw the ARFOR on Sunday pm then there was a line moving through and forecast for 0330z to be through YGAY and moving coastal with scattered SC and CU 3000-6000 behind and clearing the coast by 2200-2300Z on the Monday. The SUnday forecast had TEmpo,s with CB and lots of activity ahead of the trough, many pilots including 3 trikes flew Sth and Sth west on Sunday pm and on forecast I decided, as I,m sure did others to wait over night for the improving weather.
The track south to Gayndah was uneventful but a hemispherical of 5500 was difficult to hold after Gayndah, and I decided to move to 3500 to confirm a clear track near Tansey. As we descended I assessed the biggenden and Mary valleys and the coast was very hazy and an undefined base suggesting the trough indeed was still clearing to the east. I couldn't clearly identify Gympie from abeam Goomeri but to the west the base and horizontal vis looked much better.
THAT IS WHERE I MADE A DECISION- no hesitation, no pressing on, no chancing it, only alternates west were considered and assessed and we picked up the Bjelke Petersen dam and tracked towards the lower and clearer area then continued to evaluate until we were able to establish a clear but detiorating track to Nanango. Even with this decision I still had preselected areas every minute and kept all alternates open and the back door as well and with the assistance of my pax we constantly assessed LSALT criteria while I stayed 100 percent focused on VMC changing conditions. We safely and successfully made Nanango where we stayed for the rest of Monday.
Was I foolhardy, cavalier,macho or naive to leave Monto- IMHO opinion absolutely not, and to suggest any other pilot who did that morning is absolute rubbish. Did the conditions deteriorate as we got closer to home? ABSOLUTELY.
Was an alternate, particularly to the west in better weather a good choice-YOU decide! I KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT.
I have flown, taught and rode dirt bikes in this area for 30 yrs and know every hill and track intimately. Was I going to chance it when things changed.NO WAY!! The Jodel pushed on to Kilcoy and had to land at a private strip, the other Sav made it back to YCAB- how I don't know!
Six hours later I heard about Des and the Dragon. As a friend I shared an adjacent hangar at YCAB next to Des as he finished the resoration , I was, and still am gutted by all of this. When the search hadn't located them on Tuesday when I finally got home I rang AMSAR SCC and tried to suggest they extend the search area west, my hunch was on the western boundary of their established search area and it appears that the refined search yielded the unfortunate recovery not a rescue, at least it appears they didn't suffer.
Doug, keep the constructive comment coming mate, but be careful where you point that chicken bone cause there is always one
pointing back as well.