onetrack

....it was obvious that the Drifter was heading for a forced landing. The watchers all held their collective breaths as it just cleared a row of trees, then it suddenly shot upwards in a sharp climb. 

Just as it appeared it was going to stall, the Drifter went onto its back, then dived and carried out a half-roll, only to climb again and repeat the movement in a fabulous example of a perfect Cuban-8.

Turbo exclaimed, "It rolled onto its back, so Cappy must be driving it!! I've seen him do that so many times, in the...........

.....Enid started writing stories about flying with no visible form of power plant, and it got worse when she wrote about flying with a goat. Turbo took umbrage at this, and decided Enid was insidiously referring to him, as a "silly old goat" - which Cappy had regularly used as a term towards Turbo in a rather affectionate way, when they were just a little younger, and both still had some hair left.

So the beautiful relationship between Turbo and Enid promptly ended at that point, and history shows that Enid went on to write a myriad of other books - none of which included Turbo in her stories.

Meantimes, Turbo had turned his attention to another voluptuous member of the Gumly CWA, who appealed to him more, because she was greatly interested in aviation heroes, and mistakenly thought Turbo was one.

This rather attractive woman was known as...........

4 hours ago, turboplanner said:

Yes you will; there will be a transcript of the Court Proceedings, the judges decision and his reasons.

Turbo - But is that transcript publically available? My experience is that Court Proceedings and transcripts in civil cases are readily available publically on the AUSTLII site database, but Criminal Court proceedings and transcripts are not readily available, and an application must be made citing the exact reasons for which the transcript is needed, and the intended use of the transcript. In other words, just nosey interest in a trial will not get you a transcript of the criminal proceedings.

https://www.supremecourt.wa.gov.au/T/transcripts.aspx

Like it or not, CASA control aviation in this country with strict control. There are obviously more than a few pilots who have an aversion to any form of "Govt control" over their flying.

It's a fact of life we have to put up with "Govt control", in many areas of our daily life. A reluctance to submit to those controls is rooted in the unfair application of rules and regulations, and what often appears to excessive and heavy interference into one's everyday activities.

Flying is an activity with a greatly heightened risk of injury or death - and with passenger-carrying flights, a relatively high risk of injury or death to passengers, that must be managed, and have oversight by a controlling body.

CASA issue AOC's after ensuring the operator meets all the rules and regulations set for holding an AOC. Hoch was never issued an AOC simply because he never applied for one, as required under law - and he obviously believed that AOC's were "excessive Govt control", and he could avoid scrutiny by CASA by carrying out fare-paying passenger operations by being devious and indulging in fraud and lying.

Courts are set up simply to determine the truth of subjects in dispute. They are very good at drilling down and uncovering BS and lies and devious behaviour, that are all designed to avoid complying with laws where serious penalties exist under those laws.

Hoch thought he was pretty smart, but he wasn't as smart as he thought he was - and if he had had an aircraft crash, and injured or killed fare-paying passengers, all his assets would have been destroyed in the ensuing court cases - which isn't very clever thinking at all.

There are ways to conduct business in a time-proven satisfactory manner, which involve complying with all relevant laws and rules and regulations, and carrying all the necessary insurances.

In this case, Hoch decided he would be a maverick and refuse to comply with the necessary laws for the carrying out of commercial aviation activities, and he's been found guilty in a properly-established court of law, and he now has to pay the penalty. Some people just like gaining life experiences the hard way.

Eightyknots, all the evidence has been gathered and examined, and the aircraft partly reconstructed from the available wreckage. It has all been studied by experts in all their varying fields.

The investigating authorities also have transcripts of radio and phone calls from Ukrainian security forces, between the parties involved (who have been precisely identified), discussing how they had shot down an airliner, expecting it to be a Ukrainian AN-26.

The discussion transcripts reveal the Russian commander cursing when his operatives reported bodies of women and children from the crash - and how the Russian complained that the Malaysia flight, "Should not have been flying! There's a war on!" 

https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-militants-mh17-transcript-2014-7

The journalist collected fragments of the BUK missile, simply because he was there and he was curious. The Dutch investigators could not gain access to the crash site, because it was in a war zone, and the crash investigators security could be guaranteed. It took some time for the Dutch crash investigators to gain access to the site and to try and secure it - by which time, many items were missing.

https://libraryonline.erau.edu/online-full-text/ntsb/miscellaneous-reports/mh17-crash-en.pdf

And here is the full 2020 Dutch court trial transcript of the "alternative scenarios" for the MH17 crash investigation.

https://www.prosecutionservice.nl/topics/mh17-plane-crash/prosecution-and-trial/court-sessions-june-2020/alternative-scenarios

.....a call came through on his mobile. It was Cappy. "You XXXXXXX XXXX!!!" he screamed. "You XXXXXX off and left me holding the bill for that 5 course meal, dessert and 3 bottles of wine!! But I didn't have the readies, and I had to do a runner! Now they'll be looking for me all over town!! I'm going to blow this joint, and I'm heading out to the airport to crank up the Drifter and head West, where OT will treat me like the gentleman I am!"

Turbo laughed ... and laughed ... and laughed. "Why didn't you just do the dishes, like I regularly did?", he said. Cappy replied, "You know my delicate little pinkies can't tolerate dishwater! - and besides, someone might get..........

....started asking for any forms requiring personal details, to have a substantial range of gender choices added to them - not just the regular LGBTIQA, but CDEFHIJKMNOPRSTUVWXY and Z.

"But that still doesn't cover anyone who chooses to have no gender!", cried bull, who had aimed at becoming genderless, to remove any chance of becoming alienated.

"This will require larger forms!", exclaimed Cappy, who had always harboured a desire to..........

Unfortunately, the U.N.'s ability and record to carry out things it wants done, is highly deficient - and the structure of the U.N. is what works against it, with the constant vetoing ability of the worlds worst rogue nations, coming into play constantly.

There was nothing "dreamed up" about the BUK missile "theory". The fragments collected from the scene were identified as coming from a BUK missile, including a part of a BUK missile serial number.

The whole case hinged on finding incontrovertible proof that a Russian BUK missile downed MH17 and that 2 Russians and 1 Ukrainian working for Russias military, downed the plane.

I fail to understand how you continually try to defend the indefensible - the fact that the Russians care not a whit for human life - not Ukrainian, not international aircraft passengers (mostly Dutch), and not even their own soldiers.

https://www.rtlnieuws.nl/buitenland/artikel/1282246/evidence-proving-flight-mh-17-was-taken-down-buk-missile

The latest news is that Antonov have decided to plan for a complete new AN-225, utilising about 30% of the available parts from either the bombed AN-225, or perhaps the second unfinished AN-225 airframe.

The project is still in the "design phase", says Zelinskyy, and contrary to recent reports, a "go-ahead" to actually build a new aircraft has not been given, because the current priority is on winning the War, and then seeking out global financing for the expected 500M Euro build cost. The Ukrainians are also talking about making Russia pay for the rebuild - but I'd have to opine that that is going to be difficult, unless they confiscate some Russian assets.

https://www.businessinsider.com/largest-cargo-plane-antonov-mriya-ukraine-russia-rebuilt-2022-11

https://www.aviation24.be/manufacturers/antonov/an-225-mriya/antonov-to-rebuild-worlds-biggest-cargo-plane-the-an-225-mriya-at-a-cost-of-500-million/

https://www.heavyliftpfi.com/sectors/antonov-airlines-stands-united/21745.article

Well, it looks like one Nth Qld aviator will be grounded for a while to come. Bail for Hoch has been rescinded, and he will be sentenced next week.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-18/queensland-pilot-found-guilty-chartering-flights-unlicensed/101656012

Then there's the inescapable fact that substantial and increasing numbers of people now live in apartments, with no personal garaging. They often park in the street.

If they have apartment parking, that means the entire apartment parking area will have to be wired for chargers. I hate to think about the level of cost for doing that, across the country.

Of course, a vast increase in charging points means a vast increase in demand for copper wiring - but the copper is already in huge demand for building EV's!

Then there's the massive demand for all types of minerals and other raw material inputs for the major U.S. infrastructure replacement programme, being put into action by the Biden Govt.

Add to that, the plans for China to dominate the world with EV production - just domestic demand for EV's in China would be a staggering number - let alone the rest of the world.

And of course, China is still proceeding with major infrastructure investments as well - housing, railways, power stations, manufacturing investments.

Then on top of all this, is the massive demand for materials for solar panels, wind turbines, and any other form of renewable power generation programme.

The article below crunches the actual numbers for raw material demand, from the mining viewpoint. It's frightening to see the shortfall in raw materials and raw mineral demand.

The only way the world can continue on its projected course of a vast increase in EV's, and a vast increase in renewable power generation, is via a vast increase in funding poured into recycling.

But nowhere do I see that happening. Recycling is regarded as the poor cousin of industry, and is looked down on, and receives minimal Govt support.

Councils are one of the few areas where they recognise where there's a need for a vast level of increase in recycling efforts. But the councils are not getting that level of support, that they need.

The W.A. Govt has just given a $7M grant to a private company for recycling used tyres. This is part of $20M in grants from the State Govt for a recycling boost for tyres and plastics.

Good on both the State Govt and the company, for doing something about the used tyre and waste plastic problem.

But the new tyre recycling plant will only recycle 9000 tyres annually - that's a drop in the ocean as regards the number of tyres sold annually.

In the meantime, no-one is addressing the need for a major investment in making sure that our vital minerals that are needed for EV's and renewable energy projects, are not going to landfill.

https://www.mining.com/web/building-more-mines-the-devil-is-in-the-details/

.......cure for the boredom of the long Tasmanian nights! Our TV reception here is a bit dodgy, and watching the AA is far better than watching a myriad of TV ads!"

"However", he added, "there's been some problems with the trailing wire setup, as we found out the wires also acted like a huge antenna, and we were picking up 'Voice of America' broadcasts on our AM car radios (because no-one in Tasmania has FM yet). But then it got worse, when........

Marty, the top wing was possibly made from a disposable cheap material, such as plywood.

The day I believe the exaggerated claims by the Chinese for electrical output of every single thing they make, will be a wondrous day indeed. The Chinese have long believed that those who tell the biggest lies about performance, win the most sales.

Every single genset produced by the Chinese has overstated output and ratings, and their engines are no different. The Chinese know there's no penalty in overstating performance, it's just another "marketing advantage".

He did a much better design job on BAT-2 than he did on BAT-1. I like that little BAT-2, all the lines just look right.

Actually, it's D-EZBF - so it must be, de e-zee baby fokker.

....horn and try to rip it from his pants. Cappy screamed at the........

Peter - Yes, those Toyota asset figures should have been $B, not $M. Unfortunately, those Toyota figures I was given are seemingly incorrect - as always, "getting the overall picture" of the finances of a global corporation is not always easy. There is "long term debt" and "total liabilities", which are vastly different measurements, as we all know.

I think I've found a better source in the link below, that shows both the total liabilities and total assets of Toyota in a more comprehensive fashion.

While Toyotas debt has increased steadily over the last few years, its assets have also increased accordingly. Both have declined by a few percent this year.

The figures below show Toyotas total assets peaked at US$602B at 31/03/2022, but have gone down to US$536B as at 30/09/2022. 

In comparison, Toyotas "total liabilities" peaked at US$360B at 31/03/2022, and have reduced to US$327B as at 30/09/2022.

They still have US$67B in cash on hand, a tidy sum by anyones measure - but down from a peak of US$87B at 31/03/2021.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TM/toyota/total-assets

If you watch the video from the rear of the last few seconds of flight before the collision, the P-63 Kingcobra shows an increase in banking to the left, to the point where the bank angle is quite steep before the impact.

Whether this was being carried out under the control of the pilot, or whether it was because he was no longer in control, is going to be a major point of the investigation.

A Platzer Kiebitz, an amateur-built aircraft built from plans by home builders. Quite a surprising number are registered and flying, and the engine choice is up to the builder. Engines used have been a small Nissan automotive engine, Rotax, VW, Sauer, and I believe I've seen one fitted with a radial, possibly a Rotec?

EDIT: - No, it has a radial-shaped cowling, but the engine is actually a Limbach 2000 flat four.

https://www.planecheck.com/index.asp?ent=da&id=52858&cor=y

If the remains of the original aircraft are substantial enough to be rebuilt, by all means, rebuild it. It will only take millions, so a wealthy backer would need to be found to provide the funding. Aircraft have been rebuilt from remains dragged from the sea, and from major fires, so it's entirely achievable.

However, the most sensible thing to do, is build a new aircraft from the plans. It's highly unlikely the plans are specifically owned by someone and that they could prevent the construction of another new machine. The original designer is dead, and any patents or rights to the designs have expired many years ago - and even if someone claims the rights to the original plans, they wouldn't have any worthwhile legal grounds to be able to stop the construction of another machine, or demand payment for the plans.

And as with the rebuild, the cost of constructing a new aircraft will run into millions, so a wealthy backer still needs to be found.

It's a very smart-looking little aeroplane, the lines are definitely very Auster-like.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/powerhouse_museum/5344846820/in/photostream/

After reading about the stellar career and outstanding abilities of this pilot, the reasons behind the crash become even less understandable, and a severe medical event affecting the pilot of the P-63 Kingcobra is starting to raise its spectre.

I see things in this pilots physical features and lifestyle that I do not like, as regards the potential for sudden death. I'll not outline them here, but wait until the NTSB report is concluded, and the autopsy results are in. It's a fact of life that you can pass an intensive medical, and drop dead minutes later. The worlds greatest running athlete dropped dead whilst on a training run.

https://meaww.com/who-was-craig-hutain-details-of-montgomery-pilot-who-died-in-dallas-air-crash

Quote

The Nuclear power station matter in Japan Hit a lot of manufacturing there.

Nev, it may come as a surprise to you that 40% of the nuclear power stations in Japan are currently in fully operational mode - including Fukushima. They have 10 reactors and all have been approved to return to operation by local govt, but 6 are still in the process of implementing safety measures and carrying out additional construction works.

I'd hazard a guess that the pandemic impacted manufacturing more severely than any other single factor.

Quote

Toyotas debt has skyrocketed in the last year.

Not quite correct. Toyota currently do have a lot of debt - US$186M to be precise. But they're far from bankrupt, they have US$224M in total company assets, and cash at hand - and their everyday manufacturing is still quite profitable.

Where they did incur that debt was from the GFC, when vehicles sales tanked - and from the pandemic, when sales tanked again. They also incurred major costs between 2009 and 20012, when they were dragged through the U.S. courts over warranty failures, and design failures such as the floormats that jammed accelerators. They paid out $48M in fines in the U.S. courts, and they had to recall 2.17M vehicles. Despite all that, they still dominate car markets around the world.

I spent 7 years crank-starting a Southern Cross YB single-cylinder diesel engine on a 32V lighting plant, in my teenage years and early 20's. Cold morning starts were a PIA! It's not something I want to revisit!

Even earlier than that, my Father purchased a Ronaldson-Tippett CK model 2 cyl, 25-27.5HP for driving a Stalker centrifugal pump on our dairy farm. Now that was a monster of a thing to crank! No electric starters for them!

I currently own a 3 cyl Ruston-Hornsby VSO, awaiting restoration. It produces about 30HP at a maximum speed of 1000RPM. It weighs over 800kgs!

I'm not looking forward to cranking that thing either, I think I'll be setting up some kind of electric start for it!

The problem as I see it, is EV's are being pushed on us via a requirement for the lowering of emissions, and well ahead of technological developments in EV's and batteries, and we will wear a vast increase in costs personally, because of this "a**e-backwards" development process.

I like the idea of EV's in many respects -

1. Low fuel costs is a good feature.

2. No idling means low energy input, and no emissions whilst waiting around in traffic or other situations. A huge saving in wasted fuel right there.

3. Electric motors are simple and only have a minimum of working parts and power output comes from rotary motion, not the constant component stop-start, energy-sapping motion of ICE's.

4. An electric motor only draws the power required at any point in time, unlike an ICE which may be putting out 100HP when only 75HP is actually required.

5. Braking can be regenerative, which is far better than any ICE engine-powered vehicle, where there's large energy losses in braking.

But the downsides are -

1. The current cost of EV's is not economic to most buyers, and only the hardened and wealthy eco-warriors are buying them.

2. The fuel savings are not a massive number, over the life of a vehicle. You certainly wouldn't buy an EV on fuel savings alone.

3. The battery technology changes annually, with the potential that early EV buyers will end up with "obsolete" technology. God knows we have enough "obsolete" orphans in the ICE field. Already, one type of EV charging connector (CHAdeMO) has been deemed obsolete. So that's more cost to EV owners as they find they have to alter their charger cable, or purchase an entire new one at huge cost.

4. The weight of EV's is never mentioned. Weight takes energy to propel. While ICE-powered vehicle designers have shaved an average of 140kgs off the weight of the average car in the last 30 years, thanks to alloys and thinner, high tensile steel panels - EV's have arrived that weigh 50% more than the average ICE-engine vehicle, for a comparative size.

That enormous weight even demands special tyres for EV's. That massive weight means bearings and shafts must be bigger to carry the weight. I rarely see the carrying capacity of EV's mentioned - simple because their weight-carrying capacity is quite limited.

5. There are constant lingering concerns over recharging capability for EV's - particularly when the EV numbers become sizeable. This ranges from inadequate power station output requirements, right through to an excessive demand for limited number of chargers, and charging station points. There is no nation-wide charging network, unlike the service station network. We are continually promised a nationwide charging network, but the promises continually fail to deliver, thanks to the aforementioned restrictions.

6. The need for trained technicians to work on EV's. We currently have a major shortage of employees who have EV repair skills. This requires a major increase in electrical training, and electrical knowledge. With many EV's running high voltages (400V or more), there's a huge risk of electrocution if low-skill employees are let loose on EV's. To work on any other electrical network, you need a high level of electrical training and qualifications, and electricians are already in short supply.

7. Electrical equipment is prone to rapid degradation. Insulation gets weathered and goes hard. The heat of operation makes insulation fail over a period of time. You can buy a good-looking used welder or power tool that's only a few years old, but when you put it to work, it promptly arcs out, and you end up with a pile of scrap. EV's won't be immune from this problem, either.

Overall, I simply believe that EV and lightweight, high-energy battery development still has a long way to go, and the forecast times for the complete elimination of ICE power plants from our society is not something that will happen by some set arbitrary date, that is currently touted as being within 5 or 8 years.

Toyota also believe this is the case, and they cannot see any clear vision in their crystal ball, of what our energy sources and power units will look like by 2035.